World Bank, ADB and AMRO Project Cambodia’s Economic Growth at 4.8-4.9% in 2025

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Cambodia’s economy is projected to grow between 4.8-4.9% in 2025, according to assessments from the World Bank, ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), and Asian Development Bank (ADB). Growth is expected to moderate in 2026, with projections ranging from 4.3% to 5.0%.

Regional Comparison

Cambodia’s projected 2025 growth rate positions the country in the middle tier among ASEAN economies:

A table shows GDP growth rates of ASEAN+3 countries for the current year released by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) in Singapore, AMRO.

 

Economic Activity Drivers

• Industry Sector: Garment exports surged 22.2% year-on-year in H1 2025, partly due to US buyers anticipating higher tariffs. Manufacturing remains strong despite trade policy uncertainty.
• Tourism: Tourist arrivals recovered to pre-pandemic levels, though average spending per tourist remains below 2019 benchmarks. Border tensions with Thailand are expected to dampen tourism in H2 2025.
• Private Consumption: Domestic retail sales continue to support economic activity. Household spending patterns show steady growth, though consumer sentiment indicators remain below pre-pandemic benchmarks.
• Agriculture: Sector forecast to expand 1.1% in 2025-2026. Agricultural exports rose 14.1% year-on-year in H1 2025, driven by cashew nuts and milled rice, offsetting declines in cassava and rubber.
• Labour Force: Cambodia maintains a labour force participation rate of approximately 80%. The working-age population (15-64 years) continues to expand, with employment primarily concentrated in manufacturing, agriculture, and services sectors.

Trade Environment

Despite Cambodia’s economic challenges from geopolitical tensions with Thailand and US export market uncertainty. Cambodia still demonstrates the solid 4.8% growth projection by the World Bank and 4.9% by AMRO and ADB for 2025 reflects continued economic expansion supported by tourism recovery, private consumption, and high labour force participation. The moderation to 4.3% in 2026 accounts for external trade pressures. Growth sustainability depends on export diversification, investment climate improvements, and structural reforms.

Source:

• Quarterly Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) – October 2025
• AMRO projects Cambodia’s growth at 4.9 percent in 2025 – Khmer Times 
• WB lifts Cambodia’s 2025 growth forecast to 4.8% – Khmer Times 
• ADB Signals Cambodia’s Continued Economic Resilience Despite Softer Growth Forecast | Asian Development Bank